Abstract We consider the problem of a leader who can assign rewards for citizens different anti-regime actions. Citizens face coordination in which each citizen has private, endogenous degree optimism about likelihood regime change. Because more optimistic are easier to motivate, choice optimal entails screening. This leads distribution A key result is emergence vanguard, consisting engage endo...

Two aspects of regime-change management are transitory planning, which avoids assembly feed-stock shortages in the new processing regime, and the timing of the change, which enhances the meshing of adjacent plans. In this paper, the stock implications of regime changes which incorporate transitory planning, are optimised with respect to the timing of the change. To highlight the stock effect, p...

an important and fundamental issue in iran is to utilize water and to avoid wasting it. therefore, climate change can be considered as an effective factor on water resources. the most tangible climate change phenomenon is drought which is much important to be identified. in this study, the effect of climate changes on flow rate in bashar river, shahmokhtar station of yasouj city was evaluated u...

Total factor productivity (TFP) and investment specific technology (IST) growth both exhibit regime-switching behavior, but the regime at any given time is difficult to infer. We build a rational expectations real business cycle model where underlying TFP IST regimes are unobserved. develop general perturbation solution algorithm for wide class of models with unobserved regime-switching. Using ...

Istudy how a revolutionary vanguard might use violence to mobilize a mass public. The mechanism is informational—–the vanguard uses violence to manipulate population member’s beliefs about the level of antigovernment sentiment in society. The model has multiple equilibria, one equilibrium in which there may be revolution and another in which there is certain not to be. In the former, structural...

t his paper investigates the asymmetric behavior of inflation. we use logistic smooth transition autoregressive (lstar) model to characterize the regime-switching behavior of iran’s monthly inflation during the period may 1990 to december 2013. we find that there is a triple relationship between the inflation level, its fluctuations and persistence. the findings imply that the behavior of infla...